Blair has transformed Labour into the party of Middle Britain. He has tackled the unions, unshackled the party from its old-style socialist dogma and blended in a communitarian agenda that resembles Bill Clinton’s evocation of the importance of family and community. Clinging to the ideological center, he has drawn middle-class support away from the Tories without losing the party’s bedrock, working-class voters. And he knows how to relate to business. He talks about policies that would yield ““good times that actually last.’’ He praises corporate profits. He wants ““people to consume more’’ and ““pay lower taxes.’’ Don’t believe for a moment, he tells business leaders, that Labour is ““a bunch of killjoys’’ out to mug the marketplace. And he’s already looking beyond the next vote, which must come by next spring. In one recent appearance at historic Guldhall in London’s financial district, he was as smooth as the silken banners overhead. ““I believe we will have succeeded if at the next election no one asks which is the pro-business party,’’ he said.
The election has a significance well beyond Britain’s shores. Were Blair to win, the debilitating argument between Britain and its partners in the European Union over the future direction of Europe would very likely come to an end. Moreover, Blair’s professed commitment to a market economy moderated by a degree of social protection will test whether a left-of-center European party can take the steps needed for economic competitiveness without alienating its traditional backers. On a continent where social democracy still attracts millions of supporters, a lot is riding on his shoulders.
Major sometimes seems to have only one big ally: time. He doesn’t have to call an election until next May–and probably won’t. Britain’s economy is strong, and as the good times continue voters may begin to think more kindly of Major. Tory papers that have held their fire could try to tear Blair to shreds. The Tories are one of the world’s most ruthlessly successful parties, and they’re about to go out on the offensive. Their comeback strategy will begin to emerge this week at their own party conference, in Bournemouth. The plan is for a classic pincer assault. They will take the low road against Blair and Labour and the high road on the economy and Europe.
The Tories will paint Blair as a Labour wolf in Conservative clothing–the British equivalent of a ““tax and spend liberal.’’ Tory sleuths are poring over speeches by Blair and others in Labor hierarchy to identify and cost out promises made and programs proposed. ““They’ve been scattering pledges like confetti on the doorstep,’’ says economist Maurice Fraser, a Tory adviser. The high-road strategy will hail Britain as the enterprise center of Europe. A further calculation is that talks on the future of European integration will be nearing an end as Britons go to the polls. Major can present himself as a steady hand at the tiller, contrasting himself with Blair, whose background in the parliamentary opposition has given him little experience in foreign affairs.
So far the Tories have had a hard time laying a hand on Blair. He’s elusive, ““postideological’’; even one of his biographers says he doesn’t have a handle on Blair’s core beliefs. Of late, Tory advertising strategists have resorted to demonic images. They tried a photo of Blair with satanic eyes, which was deemed beyond the pale. So now the eyes alone peer menacingly out of a purse, its mouth set to snap shut on the taxpayers’ money. It’s pretty effective for anyone who has some vestigial fear of higher taxes under a Labour government. But the message may not be enough to resist a candidate who seems singularly attuned to the voter of the ’90s.
