At central points in his narrative, Sick depends heavily on the accounts of Ari BenMenashe, who claimed to be a key player in the deal. But there are gaping holes in BenMenashe’s story. Sick also relies on Jamshid Hashemi, who with his late brother Cyrus claimed to have brokered the deal. The Hashemis were involved in negotiating with Iran over the hostages–but as go-betweens for the Carter administration, There is no credible evidence they acted for the Reagan campaign.

In his book, Sick reports that Cyrus Hashemi met with Iranian clerics and an unidentified “authorized representative” of the Carter administration in Madrid on July 2, 1980. NEWSWEEK has evidence that the mysterious emissary was not a Carter official but a private citizen whose identity may be significant: J. Stanley Pottinger–a Republican, a Justice Department official in the Nixon and Ford administrations. Four days after the meeting in Madrid, Abolhassan Bani Sadr, the moderate Iranian leader who was later overthrown, made a note in his diary that planted the seed that grew into the October Surprise theory. Bani Sadr wrote that a mullah told him that while “in Spain a few days before, he had been approached by Reagan’s men with a proposition for negotiations over the hostages.”

Is it possible that the unworldly mullah simply confused the Republican Pottinger as a Reaganite instead of a Carter emissary? Sick insists the diplomatic follow-up to the July 2 meeting proves the Iranians knew Pottinger represented Carter. So was someone in Madrid playing a double game? Sick acquits the American emissary: “I have no indication he was acting for anyone except us.” Pottinger did not return NEWSWEEK’S phone calls. Sick points the finger at Cyrus Hashemi, who, he claims throughout his book, was playing the role of double agent. But if Hashemi was working for the Reaganites, he was rather badly rewarded. In 1984, Hashemi was indicted by the Reagan Justice Department for arms smuggling. Yet Hashemi never even raised the marker Sick claims he held on Casey and Co. to his own lawyer, Elliot Richardson, who told NEWSWEEK Hashemi never mentioned anything about the October Surprise.

It is conceivable that upcoming congressional investigations will discover some surprising new facts about negotiations between Iran and the Carter or Reagan camp–or both. But the evidence offered by Sick’s new book falls well shy of proving that the Reaganites cut a deal with Iran.